Gujing Liquor (000596): National high-end high-volume national strategy is stable
The company’s recent situation On Monday we participated in the company’s shareholder meeting and grassroots research on the Hefei, Luzhou market:
The company’s high-quality base wine production capacity meets the needs of the next high-end rapid volume, internal potential space is connected, and multiple old production areas resume production and focus on high-quality wine production.
Firmly sub-high-end as the core, the nationalization strategy remains unchanged, continuous three-dimensional marketing and promotion, and short-term non-profitability as the core demand.
Brand height and consumer base have improved significantly in the past two years.
The terminal transaction prices of major sub-high-end products such as Gu 8 have decreased in Hefei and other places, and the channel spread has narrowed.
The company took the initiative to control the goods in the second quarter.
Commenting on the trend of sub-high-end popularization, the company’s saturated aggressive marketing is helpful for the card at this price.
The consumption of liquor in mainstream banquet seats in several cities and cities in Anhui is rapidly increasing to 200?
The 300 yuan upgrade has become a popular choice.
Gujing’s sub-high-end revenue scale and brand influence began to significantly exceed the province’s boundaries. Dense product layout and fine channel operations can continue to grasp the possibility of sub-high-end expansion in Anhui.
In 18 years, Gujing’s high-end sales volume was about 8,400 tons, accounting for only about 60 inches of liquor consumption in the province1.
4%, has continued to improve space.
The strategy of markets outside the province has changed and margins have improved.
Change the past budget model based on fixed income for income, focus on the appropriate expansion of Yu Sulu’s scale expansion, and find that the cultivation of brands and consumers does not 杭州桑拿网 pursue a rapid increase in income in the short term.
The company stated that the market adjustment in Henan is effective, and the current marketing thinking is correct, and the company is expected to continue to grow.
The cost reduction structure improves the effectiveness. We expect that the gross profit margin in 19 years will be basically the same every year, and it will continue to increase steadily slightly next year.
At the same time as the second high-end burst growth in the first quarter of 19, the gross profit margin decreased year by year1.
5ppt, mainly due to the one-time increase of multiple costs in the second half of last year, including insufficient production due to environmental protection and limited production, coal to gas, and the increase in the number of employees.Improve gross margin performance.
It is recommended to maintain a sustainable forecast and maintain a target price of 140.
5 yuan, the target price corresponds to 19/20 33.
3xPE, current price corresponds to 19/20 26.
3xPE, target price has 24% growth space, maintain recommendation.
Risk If the product price system continues to decline, it will have an impact on channel profits and brand image.