Yanghe Shares (002304): Fourth-quarter revenue was slightly lower than expected, saving foreign markets continues to exert force
Event: The company announced the results report for 2018 and realized a real operating income of 241.
22 trillion, with the same increase of 21.
10%; net profit attributable to mother 81.
5.0 billion, an increase of 22.
Q4 revenue was 31.
5.6 billion, an increase of 3.
82%, net profit attributable to mother is 10.
6.6 billion, an increase of 1.
Affected by the macro economy, the fourth quarter revenue was slightly higher than expected.
There are two main reasons for the 18Q4 revenue growth rate: 1) The Mid-Autumn Festival has a certain impact.
In terms of time, the 17th Mid-Autumn Festival is at the beginning of October, and the 18th Mid-Autumn Festival is at the end of September. The 17Q4 revenue base is relatively high. In addition, the 18Q4 company actively controls the price of goods sorting products, resulting in a decrease in 18Q4 revenue growth rate.
If Q3 and Q4 are combined, the income growth of Q3 and Q4 in 18 for the same period in 2017 is 14 in the same period.
2) According to grassroots research, due to macroeconomic impact, since the end of 18 years, the business needs of some regions in the province have eased, thereby improving the company’s mid-to-high-end product growth rate.
In terms of products, the company’s short-term dream blue growth rate is more than 50%, the sky blue small double-digit growth, the sea blue large number growth, dream blue in the blue classic income ratio increased to 1Above 3, the improvement of the overall product structure is still more significant.
The new Jiangsu market is developing, and the nationalization process can be expected.
In 19 years, the company still faced certain sales pressure inside the province, especially the Nanjing market was faced with a positive resistance from this world. It is expected that the domestic revenue saved in the spring will be basically the same as the same period last year,深圳桑拿网 and some regions have a slight margin.
Key markets outside the province, such as Shandong, Jiangxi, and Henan, have performed well. The overall growth rate of the markets outside the province is expected to be around 20%, and the company’s nationalization process is progressing smoothly.
At present, the proportion of income outside the province has reached 50%, and it is expected to surpass the province in 19 years.
After years of brand building, the company’s Haitianmeng single products have formed a national brand influence, and the company’s growth has long ceased to rely on a single provincial market, and has achieved flowering growth outside the province.Resistance to risk.
Although the growth in the province is under pressure in the short term due to the intensified competition, the company has the advantage in 深圳桑拿洗浴网 brand and market operation capabilities, and is expected to stand out from the adjustment of the industry, and has great potential for national development.
Earnings forecast and grade: The net profit forecast for 18-20 years is slightly reduced, and the adjusted EPS is 5.
38 yuan / 6.
29 yuan / 7.
25 yuan, corresponding to 20 for PE.
43X / 17.
48X / 15.
We are optimistic about the company’s medium- and long-term development potential and maintain a “Buy” rating on the company.
Risk Warning: Nationalization Progress Exceeds Expectations, Macroeconomic Growth Speeds Up